Posts in Mental Models
The Kelly Criterion: Make Bets In Areas Where You Have An Advantage

Naval Ravikant has a great quote that says what you work on and who you work with is far more important than how hard you work. The extension of this is that you want to work in areas where you have an obvious advantage. Why? To avoid getting wiped out. You want to avoid losing everything and starting again from zero. The Kelly Criterion is a simple mental hook to remind you not to risk everything in one go.

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Here’s Why You Should Become A Rational Optimist

To build wealth, you need to believe you are capable of doing it. This belief isn’t trivial. Only those who are convinced they can create wealth for themselves and their family will do it. You need the right mindset for the long haul. Naval Ravikant has a useful model for this: rational optimism. If you want to create wealth, it will be easier if you become a rational optimist.

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You Are Defined By Your Worst Day, Not Your Best

Most people want to talk about their best day. The day they made a bunch of money, launched their business, or replaced their income with their side hustle. And it’s incredibly important to celebrate these victories. But what these winners don’t talk about is what they did on their worst day. This is the day that matters the most because their story didn’t end. They survived to keep playing the game.

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Learn To Sell: Ethical Sales As An Extension Of Yourself

Take a moment and think about the last three products (or services) you bought that you were really pleased with - either physical or digital. Now, think of all the pleasure and joy you’ve gotten out of your products. Ask yourself: would you have paid 5% more for any of these products you’ve enjoyed? How about 10% more? For me, the answer is yes. If the answer is yes for you, then you, the customer, is the winner of all these sales transactions! In ethical sales, the customer is the biggest winner.

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How To Conquer Fear: Ideas, Models, & More

Fear destroys your endeavors far more effectively than anything else. Fear of failure, fear of embarrassment, fear of the unknown - all of these stops you before you even begin. Here are a few ideas on how to conquer fear from those who have done it before you.

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Seek Simple And Obvious Ideas, Not Complex Ones

Simple and obvious rules of thumb are powerful. Do they always work? Of course not, but they work most of the time in most situations. Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes in his book, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, about this “Less is more” idea. Simple ideas are not perfect, but they are not meant to be. They are “fast and frugal,” designed to “make good decisions despite limited time, knowledge, and computing power.”

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Satisficing: How To Finish What You Start

There are two reasons why someone may never create anything of their own: 1) They never begin because they don’t feel “ready.” 2) They never finish because the thing they are making is never “done.” You can solve the first problem by accepting that you will never, ever finish learning, and therefore a state of complete “readiness” does not exist. And you can solve the second problem with “Satisficing” - delivering the minimum viable version of the thing you’re creating.

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Hormesis: Why Some Stress Is Actually Good For You

Stress is not always bad for the organism experiencing it. Trees, for example, get stronger when the wind blows them around. They grow a special kind of stress wood in their load-bearing trunk that can help move and position them for optimal light. The wind stressor helps them reach full maturity. When stress makes an organism more robust, it’s called hormesis.

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What Is Confirmation Bias? - Definition, Examples and More

Confirmation bias is your tendency to seek out and interpret evidence as confirmation of your current belief or position. It can make you ‘double-down’ on an objectively bad decision. It’s the reason why horoscopes work and why people remember the same event in different ways.

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Why You Should Build From The Ground Up

If you are feeling stagnant and want to grow, try building something from the ground up. It doesn’t matter what it is. It could be a business idea, a podcast, a website - whatever - just make sure you are building it from the ground up. Here's why: 1) It will make you a learning machine. 2) It will teach you specific knowledge. 3) It will give you skin in the game.

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