The Other Side of Fear is Preparation
“What the wise do in the beginning, fools do in the end.”
Fear. It destroys your endeavors far more effectively than failure ever could because it stops you from starting in the first place.
The other side of fear is preparation.
The amount of fear you feel about something is inversely correlated to how prepared you are for that event to occur.
The more prepared you are, the less you have to fear.
There are two steps of preparation:
Step 1) Define your fear.
Step 2) Build an action plan to navigate it.
Defining your fear:
Tim Ferris has a helpful model for defining fears that he calls “Fear Setting.”
The idea is to vividly write out the details of your worst-case scenario. It's like using Charlie Munger's inversion model on your own life by defining the worst possible outcomes.
In the process of defining your fears, they will come to have less control over you.
On the other side of fear is preparation. (a thread on fear)
— Thomas (@TWaschenfelder) March 21, 2020
The amount of fear you feel about something is inversely correlated to how prepared you are for that event to occur.
The more prepared you are, the less you have to fear.#Covid_19
Photo by Matthew Brodeur on Unsplash
Once you’ve written out your nightmares in detail, it’s time to build an action plan.
Building an action plan:
Your action plan should be the first few steps of how you would deal with your worst-case scenario.
You only need to build out the first couple of steps because the likelihood of your nightmare scenario happening is very low.
Just put together the beginning of a plan, and it should be enough to put your mind at ease.
For example, let’s say there exists a non-zero chance that a pandemic virus could sweep across the United States.
What’s my worst-case scenario? My wife and I end up in an emergency ward either 1) dead, or 2) without adequate healthcare insurance, leading to bankruptcy.
What first few steps could I take to avoid this nightmare scenario?
1) I’d make sure we get enough sleep, practice good hygiene, exercise and eat well.
2) I’d research healthcare plans that cover 80-100 percent of hospitalization costs.
Taking these first few steps would put my mind at ease as I keep my eye on the pandemic.
To the outside world, preparation looks like panic.
That’s why it’s hard to prepare publicly for events and circumstances others don’t want to imagine. People may even shame you for preparing for the things you fear.
This is because they don’t want to believe that what you are preparing for is possible.
Never forget that you (and others) are incentivized to believe the things you want to be true.
Photo by Wesley Tingey on Unsplash
It takes logic and discipline to weigh the evidence fairly when one outcome is better for your self-interest than the other.
Most people don’t want to put in the work. It’s easier for them to ignore the possibility of something they fear happening and shame you for preparing for it.
Meditation can examine fear.
In my meditation practice, Waking Up with Sam Harris, he teaches you that fear can be examined just like any other part of consciousness.
With practice, you can learn what fear feels like in the body.
You can learn to notice fearful thoughts and watch them fade.
You can learn to examine fear in the same way you examine pain in your foot - something this is part of your experience but will eventually fade.
Meditation is another tool to combat fear and is worth adding to your arsenal.
Fear can be your opportunity.
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy only when others are fearful.”
There is a tremendous advantage to keeping a cool head when the rest of the world is losing theirs.
Bear markets are born when uncertainty meets risk. That’s when fear of the unknown takes hold and you have panic sell-offs.
Panic sometimes causes an overshoot to the downside. This creates opportunities for those willing to look for them.
There is always a risk with any opportunity. You cannot eliminate it, but you can watch the downside very carefully.
As Buffett likes to tell us, if you watch the downside closely, the upside takes care of itself.
Fortunes are born in bear markets. Don’t let fear stop you from taking action.
Start now.
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Check out Tim Ferriss’ “Fear Setting” exercise here.
Check out Sam Harris’ Waking Up app here.
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